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The Shifting Retail Sales – Slow Growth or Rapid Change?

bricks-to-clicksAccording to the latest report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) Retail sales increased in the month of August but came in at a much slower pace than anticipated. August retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.1% seasonally adjusted from last month, and increased 3.9% unadjusted year-over-year.

Here is a point that i find the most interesting. Nonstore retailers’ sales increased 0.5% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 8.8% unadjusted year-over-year. e-Commerce and TV sales are growing faster. In my opinion, this is going to continue to become stronger over the next 5 years. By my estimation, e-Commerce and TV sales will overtake Brick and Mortar retail in every category except grocery. That is another topic entirely.

“Slow growth continues to be the economic story five years after the financial crisis,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The economy, employment, wages, and retail sales continue to stagger along. Retailers and consumers are resilient but not overly optimistic about the broader economy. While positive retail sales growth continues month-after-month, it is just not strong enough to move the needle.”

August retail sales, released today by the U.S. Census Bureau, showed that total retail and food services sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as automobiles, gasoline stations, and restaurants) increased 0.2% seasonally adjusted month-to-month and increased 4.7% adjusted year-over-year.

“Retail sales gains continue to be tepid,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Retail sales and employment, while measurably positive, have been disappointing over the last few months, and have been difficult to reconcile with consumer confidence. The data suggests that consumers remain cautious with their pocketbooks and purchases. This month’s weak retail sales report will continue to put pressure on policymakers, who are dealing with tapering, and retailers, who will need to focus on price and value to entice consumer spending.”

Other findings from the August retail sales report include:


  • Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers stores’ sales decreased 0.9% seasonally-adjusted yet increased 5.7% unadjusted year-over-year.

  • Clothing and clothing accessories stores’ sales decreased 0.8% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month yet increased 4.6% unadjusted year-over-year.

  • Electronics and appliance stores’ sales increased 0.8% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 3.1% unadjusted year-over-year.

  • Furniture and home furnishing stores’ sales increased 0.9% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 4.9% unadjusted year-over-year.

  • General merchandise stores’ sales decreased 0.2% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month yet increased 0.4% unadjusted year-over-year.

  • Health and personal care stores’ sales increased 0.6% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 3.0% unadjusted year-over-year.

  • Non-store retailers’ sales increased 0.5% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 8.8% unadjusted year-over-year.

  • Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores’ sales decreased 0.5% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month yet increased 3.7% unadjusted year-over-year.

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